Scientists warn of a serious danger associated with the increasing number of satellites in low Earth orbit.
As more satellites are launched into orbit, a scenario known as the "Kessler syndrome" is beginning to be perceived as a real threat. This scenario, proposed by NASA scientist Donald Kessler, asserts that even minor collisions between satellites can trigger a chain reaction, leading to the creation of more space debris and, consequently, new collisions. In the worst case, such a situation could trap humanity on Earth and delay space exploration for decades.
Satellites being developed by companies like SpaceX and Amazon are creating vast constellations in space. For example, SpaceX plans to deploy over 9,000 disposable satellites, while China is also working on creating its own mega-constellation.
Kessler initially suggested that the consequences of this scenario would unfold slowly, but new research adds a grim aspect: what happens if a powerful solar storm activates this process? Solar flares can emit electromagnetic waves that disrupt power grids and communications, and theoretically, a strong enough storm could disable satellite navigation systems, depriving them of the ability to follow their designated routes.
This raises serious concerns. Due to the large number of satellites, SpaceX is forced to constantly perform maneuvers to avoid collisions; last year, over 300,000 such operations were conducted.
Researchers have developed a new metric called the CRASH clock, which assesses the time required for a catastrophic satellite collision under conditions of navigation loss caused by a solar storm.
According to their calculations, satellites can be less than one kilometer apart every 36 seconds in low Earth orbit, which poses a critical danger. Studies show that in the event of a solar storm, humanity would have only 5.5 days to prevent a catastrophe. If an event as powerful as the famous Carrington event of 1859 were to occur, which caused widespread disruptions in the telegraph system and could today lead to global outages, it would create even more serious problems for all of humanity.
