The lunar race, set to unfold in 2026, is taking new forms as the United States faces serious challenges in technology and funding, while China confidently moves towards its goal of landing taikonauts on the Moon by 2030. For the first time in decades, American dominance in space exploration is under threat.
U.S. Challenges with Technology and Funding
NASA has postponed the planned astronaut landing on the lunar surface as part of the Artemis III mission to mid-2027. The first crewed flyby of the Moon in 50 years, Artemis II, has also been delayed to the period from February to April 2026 due to issues with the Orion capsule, including unexpected failures of the heat shield and difficulties with the life support system.
SpaceX, for its part, is also facing significant difficulties in developing the lunar module Starship HLS. A key demonstration of in-space refueling has now been moved from 2025 to 2026, and acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy acknowledged that "SpaceX is behind" schedule.
Additionally, the Trump administration proposed cutting NASA's budget by 24% and canceling the SLS and Orion programs after Artemis III, creating a conflict between ambitious goals and limited funding.
China: Step by Step Towards the Goal
The Chinese space program demonstrates a steady and consistent approach. The China National Space Administration has confirmed its determination to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030. All key components, including the Long March 10 rocket, the Mengzhou spacecraft, and the Lanyue lunar module, have already been developed.
In August 2025, China successfully conducted ground tests of the Long March 10 rocket, which is capable of delivering 70 tons to low Earth orbit. China's strategy involves using two rockets to send the crew and lunar module separately, which is a simpler and more reliable solution compared to the complex in-space refueling scheme of Starship.
China has already demonstrated its capabilities when the Chang'e 6 mission delivered the world's first samples from the far side of the Moon in 2024. Robotic testing of the lunar module is scheduled for 2027-2028.
Conflict of Ambitions and Reality
Amid technical problems, President Trump signed an executive order "Ensuring American Dominance in Space," aiming for a return to the Moon by 2028 and the deployment of a nuclear reactor on the lunar surface by 2030. The new head of NASA, Jared Isaacman, characterized this plan as "the most significant space policy since Kennedy."
The administration aims to attract $50 billion in space investments by 2028. However, experts point to serious technical obstacles: the U.S. still lacks operational nuclear facilities in space, while the USSR launched them back in the 1970s.
Comparative Analysis
Despite having a technological advantage in certain areas, the U.S. faces challenges. Space advocate Vitaly Egorov notes: "NASA has the super-heavy SLS rocket, which has undergone flight tests, but the Chinese have no analogs." SpaceX has completed 49 stages of Starship HLS development and is demonstrating significant progress in reusable technologies.
Nevertheless, the Chinese program proves to be more predictable and consistently funded. Former NASA director Michael Griffin criticizes the American approach as "technically unrealistic" due to its excessive complexity. NASA is revising the Artemis III architecture and considering involving Blue Origin as an alternative to SpaceX.
Future Predictions
2026 will be crucial for both programs. SpaceX must demonstrate successful in-space refueling; otherwise, Artemis III cannot take place. China has scheduled test flights for the Long March 10, and if the tests are successful, they may get ahead of schedule.
The most likely scenario is that China will land on the Moon in 2029-2030, ahead of the U.S. by a year or two. The U.S. program will face a mismatch between loud political statements and real technical capabilities. Even a successful Artemis II in 2026 does not guarantee that the landing will occur in 2027.
The outcome of the new lunar race will be shaped not only by technical capabilities but also by political will and funding stability. In this regard, China demonstrates significant advantages over the U.S., which continues to balance between ambitious plans and budget constraints.
AI Opinion
From a data analysis perspective, the current lunar race is fundamentally different from the conflict between the USSR and the U.S. in the 1960s. The first race was a symbol of ideological confrontation, while today control over lunar resources could determine the energy future of humanity for centuries to come. Helium-3, rare earth metals, and water ice transform the Moon from a symbolic prize into a strategic asset worth trillions of dollars.
Historical analysis shows that countries with developed space programs often fail due to overconfidence and bureaucracy. The U.S. underestimated Soviet capabilities in the late 1950s, viewing the first satellites as "propaganda tricks." The Chinese model of "one party - one solution" may prove more effective for long-term space projects compared to the American system, where priorities change every four years. Perhaps the real intrigue lies not in who lands first, but in who will create a sustainable lunar infrastructure?
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