There are about 14,000 active objects in low Earth orbit, and the amount of space debris consists of at least 45,000 large fragments. Traffic in this area now resembles a traffic jam in a large city during rush hour, and the situation is rapidly deteriorating. The study warns: a powerful magnetic storm could lead to serious consequences, depriving people of everything that has been sent into space. As a result, a ring of debris could form, destroying any new launches and missions. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.09643)
What is the likelihood of such a scenario? Is it merely a frightening assumption created to attract funding for yet another space debris cleanup project?
On one hand, the Kessler syndrome, where collisions between satellites create a swarm of debris capable of triggering a chain reaction of destruction involving other objects, could represent one of the worst-case scenarios. In this case, one can only hope for the best.
On the other hand, it is worth noting that the authors of the study developed a specific algorithm that led to such alarming conclusions. However, this does not necessarily reflect the real picture. Russian specialists have been conducting their own calculations for the past five years, but their results differ significantly from those presented in this study.
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