Against the backdrop of a chronic energy shortage and increasing budgetary problems, Kyrgyzstan is making the decision to implement one of the most controversial energy projects in its history — the construction of a solar power plant (SPP) with a capacity of 1900 MW in partnership with the Vietnamese company ROX Group. Although the project is promoted as a significant step towards "green" energy, its implementation is fraught with numerous financial, legal, technical, and reputational risks. These risks could lead not only to the failure of the specific project but also to a serious crisis in the country's energy sector. The analysis creates the impression that behind the external gloss of "renewable" modernization lies a potential "Trojan horse" that serves only the interests of lobbyists while harming national interests.
Financial Risks
ROX Group shows alarming signs of financial instability. According to available data, its debt obligations exceed its equity by more than 7 times, and in some cases even up to 11 times. For international investors, such figures signal a high probability of default and a low ability to meet financial obligations without external assistance. The company is already facing issues related to restructuring and overdue bonds, which is a clear sign of internal financial difficulties.
In the current situation, ROX Group will not be able to attract project financing from major banks or international funds without the provision of extraterritorial guarantees by Kyrgyzstan. This means that the state, already burdened with significant external debt in the energy sector, will be forced to assume the risks of a private investor. As a result, instead of attracting private investments, the country may find itself in a new debt dependency — under the guise of "green" development. An example is the recent accident at the solar stations under construction in Issyk-Kul, which some sources link directly to the Vietnamese partner.
Legal Risks
Another alarming factor is the legal reputation of ROX Group. The only registered project of the company in solar energy — Thuan Nam 19 (60 MW) in Vietnam — is under investigation. According to Vietnamese media, on April 10, 2025, local authorities initiated a criminal case related to corruption and bribery associated with the implementation of this project.
For the Ministry of Energy of Kyrgyzstan, this creates dual risks. On one hand, cooperation with a company that is at the center of an anti-corruption investigation may undermine trust in the investor selection process and raise suspicions of lobbying. On the other hand, in the event of a guilty verdict, the assets of ROX Group may be blocked, and its participation in international projects may be limited. Kyrgyzstan could become embroiled in prolonged legal disputes, paralyzing the project's implementation and jeopardizing state guarantees.
Technical Deficiencies
The 1900 MW SPP project does not align with the current conditions of Kyrgyzstan's energy system, which has historically been oriented towards hydropower generation and is characterized as outdated and unprepared for the integration of large volumes of variable generation. The introduction of such a volume of "intermittent" solar energy without significant investments in storage systems and substation modernization could lead to failures, equipment damage, and even accidents.
ROX Group also lacks sufficient experience to implement projects of this scale. The only similar project — a 60 MW station — is not a suitable precedent. Moreover, considering the mistakes made by the Ministry of Energy in preparing the tender documentation for the Kara-Keche TPP, hopes for effective oversight of the Vietnamese contractor's work seem unfounded. The risk of poor performance, lowered standards, and the use of low-quality equipment is particularly high, given the company's financial situation.
Alternative in the Form of SMRs
Against the backdrop of the risks associated with the ROX Group project, small modular reactors (SMRs) appear as a more reliable alternative. Unlike SPPs, SMRs can provide stable baseload power at any time of day and are not dependent on weather conditions, allowing them to integrate smoothly into the existing infrastructure. The lifespan of SMRs exceeds 60 years, while solar panels only last 20–25 years. Typically, SMR projects are implemented by state corporations with high credit ratings, which reduces risks for the host country.
The choice of ROX Group ignores a critical problem for Kyrgyzstan: the energy shortage in winter and transitional seasons when solar generation is minimal. A 1900 MW SPP will not solve this problem but will only create the illusion of development. At the same time, SMRs could become the foundation for ensuring energy independence, providing stable generation during peak demand periods.
Image of Green Initiatives
The failure of the project with ROX Group could negatively impact not only the budget but also the entire "green" strategy of Kyrgyzstan. International partners supporting the development of renewable energy sources may reconsider their involvement, seeing Kyrgyzstan as an unreliable partner. Society may begin to perceive any "green" initiatives as potential sources of corruption and inefficiency.
Particularly concerning is that this project is being promoted under the auspices of the Ministry of Energy, whose reputation has already suffered due to a number of controversial decisions. The choice of ROX Group appears not as a result of careful analysis but rather as a consequence of lobbying influence, possibly from Vietnamese business circles.
The winter of 2025–2026 will be a critical moment. If the project with ROX Group is not reconsidered, Kyrgyzstan risks being left without a new source of generation, but with new debts, legal disputes, and a tarnished reputation. Instead of achieving energy independence, the country may find itself dependent on an unscrupulous investor, leading to a systemic crisis.
