Shawn Rayn, a recognized expert on China and head of the China Market Research Group (CMR), shared his opinion on why Western assessments of the Chinese economy are long overdue for an update. In an interview, he noted that many of the specialists whose opinions are currently cited by politicians and businessmen left China back in 2015–2016 and continue to draw conclusions based on outdated information.
Rayn also acknowledged the existence of certain difficulties in China's economy: the real estate market is currently experiencing a downturn, housing prices have fallen by 30–40%, and sales levels remain low. Nevertheless, he emphasizes that this is not a crisis in the classical Western sense. Mortgage loans in China are not "underwater," and buyers traditionally pay a large portion of the housing cost upfront. According to him, the main issue is that people have become more cautious in their spending, leading to a decline in economic confidence, especially among the youth, which in turn creates long-term demographic risks.
Rayn stresses that the situation in China's economy is not as dire as it is portrayed abroad. The country has significant household savings, and last year, Chinese stock markets demonstrated one of the highest growth rates in the world. The main problem lies not in a lack of financial resources, but in the growing anxiety among the population.
Regarding technological progress, he refuted the notion of China as a country limited to copying. Rayn points to new players like DeepSeek, as well as the impressive achievements of companies like Alibaba and Baidu, which, in his opinion, have surprised those experts in the U.S. who believed that China was significantly lagging in technology. He believes that China is creating its own innovative ecosystem and is already catching up, and sometimes even surpassing the U.S. in certain areas.
In light of U.S. sanctions, China is focusing on self-sufficiency, developing its own technologies, including semiconductors, as well as products like beef, fruits, and soybeans. This is due to concerns that the U.S. may attempt to impose similar measures on China as it did with Russia and Iran. Rayn emphasizes that it is external pressure that has accelerated China's transition to its own technological base.
He cites the automotive industry as an example, where Western brands have failed to take advantage of the rapid growth of Chinese electric vehicles. Today, BYD is perceived as a premium brand in several Asian countries, while Western companies missed the opportunity by not noticing changes in the market. Rayn also reminds that subsidies are received not only by Chinese manufacturers: without government support, companies like Tesla and many American tech firms would not exist.
Touching on the trade war between the U.S. and China, Rayn calls it a failure. He points out that China's exports to the U.S. account for only 2–2.5% of GDP, and the country can produce many goods independently or source them from other nations. Thus, tariffs have negatively impacted American consumers rather than Chinese industry.
In his opinion, China will not return to the growth rates typical of the 2010s; however, the current economic situation is stable and manageable. Rayn believes that the country has managed to overcome some of the negative consequences of sanctions, and entrepreneurial activity is beginning to pick up again.
