"The Lipstick Effect," or Why Cafes and Restaurants in Bishkek Are Full of Visitors

Владислав Вислоцкий • 09.01.2026, 09:16 • Society

Some government officials in Kyrgyzstan often cite the situation with street congestion and the fullness of cafes in Bishkek, questioning: if the economy is such, why are restaurants full? The answer to this question may lie in the "lipstick effect" hypothesis developed by American sociologist Juliet Schor.

What is the "Lipstick Effect"?

In sociology, there is a theory known as the Lipstick Effect, which asserts that during economic downturns, people's incomes decrease, and they cannot afford expensive purchases such as housing or cars. However, the desire for pleasures does not disappear, and instead, people begin to indulge in small joys, such as going to cafes or buying affordable cosmetics, like lipstick.

According to Forbes, during financial difficulties, women can afford expensive lipsticks that they use in public, while forgoing more expensive cosmetics intended for home use.

This hypothesis was first presented by Juliet Schor in her book titled The Overspent American, published in 1998.

Standards of Luxury: From Aristocracy to Instagram

The main idea of the professor's research is that aristocrats emphasized their status by acquiring expensive items—from luxurious homes to jewelry. For example, Italian nobles in the 18th century built magnificent palaces adorned with tiles inscribed with Pro Invidia ("To Envy").
Aristocrats even enacted laws prohibiting new wealthy individuals from copying their style.
At the turn of the century, the wealthy published menus of their dinner parties in newspapers, and 50 years ago, Americans bought fake "portraits of ancestors" for their libraries, as Schor notes. However, scientific and technological progress and industrialization changed the situation, making many goods accessible.
A social standard formed: a decent home, modern furniture, household appliances, a car, and later communication devices and audio-visual equipment.
Thus, the wealth of the rich set trends that were copied by the less affluent. The concept of necessary consumption emerged, where certain items began to be perceived not as luxuries, but as necessities to meet social standards.

Competition in consumption in the 1980s was not coincidental—it arose from the desire of the middle class to emulate the wealthy, even if their financial means did not allow for it, as Schor emphasizes.

Data vs. Reality

The desire to maintain social standards, regardless of income levels, manifests not only in the U.S. but throughout modern society, including Kyrgyzstan.

This year, the consolidated budget of the country reached 1 trillion 93 billion soms, which is a historic achievement, as reported by Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliev in the Jogorku Kenesh.

Bloomberg has called Kyrgyzstan the economic tiger of Central Asia, highlighting the rapid GDP growth in recent years.

Nevertheless, the standard of living for most Kyrgyz citizens remains low.

Given the high prices for food and living on a limited budget, one would expect a decline in the import of goods such as coffee, jewelry, and expensive electronics. However, contrary to expectations, imports are not only not decreasing but in some cases even increasing.

This is further confirmation of the "lipstick effect."

Restaurant Boom: Growth of the Food Industry in Bishkek and Osh

Recent data shows that the number of catering establishments in Bishkek has increased by 53.1%—from 2,247 to 3,440 points. In Osh, the growth is even higher—57.2% (from 563 to 885 establishments).

While this may be related to population growth, it also indicates that people continue to spend money on meals in restaurants and cafes.
The average bill in Bishkek restaurants is 1,300 soms, in cafes—932 soms, and in coffee shops—564 soms.
Interestingly, in December of last year, Kyrgyz citizens actively searched online for information about:

cafes—465,113 queries;

restaurants—378,937 queries.

Thus, over the month, more than 1.5 million queries related to eating out were recorded.
While this may be connected to the pre-New Year holidays, it also demonstrates people's willingness to spend money on celebrations in cafes and restaurants.

Additionally, according to open data, in the first 10 months of 2024, Kyrgyzstan imported cosmetics worth $32.2 million. Despite rising food prices, the desire to look attractive remains significant.

Kyrgyzstan has about 130 fitness clubs, mainly in Bishkek and Osh, and the number of coffee shops is around 212.

Living on Credit: iPhones as a Symbol of Affluence

Instead of citing statistics on the import of household appliances, it is worth focusing on consumer loans.

As previously reported by 24.kg, in the first nine months of 2025, the volume of consumer loans in the country increased by 60.8% and reached 159.5 billion soms. These funds are used to purchase cars, electronics, including expensive smartphones, and household necessities.
Thus, when you see crowded cafes or a colleague buying a new iPhone on a modest salary, do not rush to conclusions.
This does not necessarily indicate a rise in wealth, but rather adherence to social standards reflecting the "lipstick effect."

Therefore, crowded coffee shops with a salary of 44,000 soms are not an indicator of wealth, but rather a surrogate for affluence: when a person cannot buy an apartment but takes out a loan for an iPhone and dines at a trendy restaurant.

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