The situation in the fuel market is becoming increasingly tense. Since the beginning of March, the price of AI-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange has increased by 13%, reaching 70,345 rubles per ton. According to Rosstat, the cost of a liter of gasoline in Russia now stands at 68.18 rubles, while in Moscow it is about 69 rubles, with some gas stations charging over 71 rubles.
Reasons for the rise in gasoline prices in Russia
Global oil prices remain high, exceeding 100 dollars per barrel, which affects gasoline prices. However, according to candidate of economic sciences and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Evgeny Sumarokov, this is not the only reason for the price increase.
— Russia occupies about 17% of the energy resources market, including oil and petroleum products. Therefore, changes in the domestic market are not always related to global oil prices.
The press service of the Autodom Group noted that high global oil prices could lead to a fuel shortage in Russia. Oil refineries are currently benefiting from exports but are also optimizing their supplies.
— With high margins on exports, oil refineries may prefer foreign markets, which could cause a shortage in the domestic market, — the company explained.
To prevent shortages, there is a fuel damping mechanism that allows the government to subsidize oil producers to keep prices stable in the domestic market. However, as noted by Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company, this mechanism has its limitations.
— Ideally, the damping mechanism should eliminate the question of where to sell fuel. But in reality, due to time delays, exports may remain more profitable during certain periods.
An interesting fact: according to reports from the Ministry of Finance, in February 2026, oil producers not only did not receive subsidies but also contributed 18.8 billion rubles to the budget, indicating that domestic prices were higher than foreign prices according to government calculations. This allowed oil producers not to fear rising prices for consumers, as this could cover their costs.
Prospects for gasoline price increases in Russia
Motorists and transport companies are primarily interested in fuel prices. Authorities assure that there is no gasoline shortage in the country. Anton Rubtsov, director of the oil and gas complex department at the Ministry of Energy of Russia, reported that gasoline reserves amount to 2 million tons, and diesel — 3.3 million tons, which is more than a year ago.
Dmitry Skryabin also believes that there will be no sharp changes in the fuel market. If necessary, authorities can intervene.
— Price increases are expected to continue, but within the limits of inflation. Nevertheless, exchange quotations remain volatile and are influenced by seasonal demand and refinery repairs.
In early February, the Ministry of Energy allowed fuel exports but is considering new restrictions, as noted by Anton Rubtsov.
— The question of a complete export ban is not urgent, but the government can decide to impose it at any moment if necessary, — he added.
Considering the current situation, experts from the Autodom Group suggest that gasoline prices could rise significantly by mid-2026. Currently, the average cost of AI-95 gasoline is 67.65 rubles per liter (which is 10.94% higher than last year). By the end of 2026, prices could reach 69–70 rubles, and by the end of summer — 70–73 rubles, with a possible peak of up to 76 rubles in regions experiencing shortages or accidents at refineries. Price increases may continue until autumn.
Many readers leave comments under the "NI" articles, expressing dissatisfaction with the rise in gasoline prices and doubts that they will ever decrease. Some note that the price per liter of gasoline in Russia consistently tends towards the equivalent of one dollar at the current exchange rate.
