Kyrgyzstan and China are turning a new page in their strategic partnership, focusing on expanding trade and economic ties. The main impetus for this process was the state visit of President Sadyr Japarov to China in February 2025, where more than 20 bilateral agreements were signed. The priority of cooperation became the improvement of logistics routes and the elimination of trade barriers. The planned visit of the Chairman of China, Xi Jinping, to Bishkek in August 2026 for the SCO summit is also expected to be an important milestone in the development of relations between the two countries.
By the end of 2025, the trade turnover between Kyrgyzstan and China reached a historic record of $27.2 billion, which is 20% more than the previous year. This made Kyrgyzstan a leader in trade growth with China in Central Asia. In this context, achieving the milestone of $45 billion by 2030 seems a logical step in continuing the current dynamics.
We spoke with Ismail Aydarghazievich Dairov, the director of the "Regional Mining Center of Central Asia" and former advisor to the Minister of Economy of Kyrgyzstan, to find out how realistic this goal is and what conditions are necessary for it.
“Achieving a trade turnover of $45 billion between Kyrgyzstan and China is quite possible. I consulted with an expert in this field, and he supported this view. However, two key aspects need to be considered,” he noted.
Firstly, the internal market needs of Kyrgyzstan do not allow for the independent consumption of such volumes of goods. In my opinion, the country will only be able to absorb about 10% of the stated amount.
Secondly, our re-export potential is crucial. Kyrgyzstan, due to its geographical position, can become a transit corridor for Chinese goods heading to other countries in the region. Considering this role, achieving the set goal seems quite feasible.
The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will be an additional factor contributing to the increase in trade turnover. If the project is completed by 2028-2029, the total trade volume may not only reach the stated amount but also exceed it.
It is also important to consider how the accounting of commodity flows is carried out. According to some data, in the 2010s, Chinese customs recorded goods supplies to Kyrgyzstan at around $11 billion, while our official statistics reflected just over $1 billion. This discrepancy is explained by the fact that part of the goods passed outside the official accounting.
Now, thanks to the development of digital technologies and transparent control systems, such discrepancies are gradually decreasing. Therefore, provided that trade transparency is maintained and logistics processes are improved, achieving the set goals seems quite realistic,” Dairov added.
