The decrease in gasoline prices in Kyrgyzstan has attracted attention; however, experts warn against hasty conclusions about the stability of this trend. The current price correction is more likely a temporary reaction to seasonal fluctuations and short-term changes in international markets than a sign of a significant improvement in the situation.
The main risk factor remains the situation in Russia—the main supplier of fuel for Kyrgyzstan. Currently, the Russian oil products market is experiencing serious difficulties: more than a third of refining capacities (about 30-38%) are not operational due to technical problems and external attacks. This has led to a sharp increase in prices on the exchange, where in 2025 the cost per ton of fuel exceeded 80,000 rubles. To cope with the internal deficit affecting many Russian regions, the authorities in Moscow were forced to ban exports and start purchasing gasoline from Belarus and Asian countries.
Although no direct supply restrictions to Kyrgyzstan have been imposed at this time, the overall instability in Russia poses a threat to our market in the medium term. Any reduction in production volumes in the Russian Federation could negatively impact the availability of imported fuel.
Nevertheless, as of today, Kyrgyz suppliers are managing the situation. Thanks to reserves and a flexible approach to procurement, the country is not experiencing a shortage, and consumers are observing lower prices at gas stations. However, experts caution: this temporary "price comfort" may quickly end as soon as seasonal demand increases and the situation at Russian plants does not stabilize.
